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‘Eligible attendees’? Confusion in WB1 over Sanders-Clinton
by Gregory R. Norfleet · News · February 11, 2016
Somewhere between check-in and headcount, four people disappeared.
It led to a confusing “tie” Feb. 1 at the West Branch 1 Democratic caucus, and a coin flip which, in the end, the state Democratic Party negated.
On caucus night, Hillary Clinton earned six county delegates outright and Bernie Sanders earned five. With 115 supporters, the Clinton campaign determined she earned 6.45 delegates, and with 99 supporters, the Sanders campaign determined he earned 5.45 delegates.
WB1 had 12 delegates to award, so a coin flip determined the last, and it went to Clinton for a 7-5 split.
It was the “.45” in both sides that prompted the coin toss.
Yet the next day, when the Iowa Democratic Party posted the results, WB1 showed both Clinton and Sanders with six delegates apiece.
Josh Levitt, press secretary for the Iowa Democratic Party, did not have answers right away.
“Thank you for bringing that to our attention,” he said when contacted Feb. 4, referring to the change from 7-5 to 6-6. “I will definitely be in touch.”
Precinct Chair Linda Carillo, who calculated delegates for the Hillary Clinton campaign, quickly acknowledged fault.
“It was a stupid math error,” she said. “I’m ashamed to admit it.”
However, it is unclear whether she did make a mistake.
The Democratic Party that night checked in 218 caucus-goers for WB1. David Johnson, who calculated the delegates for Bernie Sanders, said the rules say that is the number to use when figuring out delegates.
Carillo, instead, used the number 214. That’s 115 in Clinton’s group and 99 in Sanders’ group, the only two candidates with enough support for “viability.”
The Iowa Democratic Party results posted the next day suggest they agree with using 214, but Johnson pointed to another rule: “If the total number of delegates is FEWER than the number to be elected, an additional delegate will be awarded to the group(s) with the highest decimal below 0.5.”
Using the 218 figure, Sanders would have 5.45 delegates to Clinton’s 6.33, so the last delegate would go to Sanders.
So where did the other four caucus attendees go? West Branch Times reporter Rick DeClue said four people remained in Martin O’Malley’s corner after two rounds of realignment. Many attendees said only two remained in O’Malley’s group. Either way, O’Malley never had the 15 percent minimum necessary to form a “viable” group.
O’Malley would have needed 33 supporters, based on the 218 headcount.
After the first count, when it was determined that O’Malley did not have enough support for viability, the rules state that the O’Malley supporters would need to “realign.” And, after two rounds of Clinton and Sanders supporters talking to O’Malley supporters, either two or four moved.
The Iowa Democratic Party’s caucus rules state that “If preference group(s) are not viable, realignment occurs. If more viable preference group(s) are formed than delegates to elect, the smallest preference group(s) must realign.”
Also, the formula for figuring out delegates is this: (Attendees in preference group x Total delegates the caucus elects) / Total number of eligible attendees = Delegates for group to elect).
But it is unclear whether people who remain in unviable groups should be counted.
Caucus math
The formula for figuring out which candidates get the county caucus delegates is this:
(Attendees in preference group x Total delegates the caucus elects) / Total number of eligible attendees = Delegates for group to elect). The disagreement is how the Iowa Democratic Party defines “eligible attendees.”
If “eligible attendees” means the number of people who checked in at the beginning of the night, then there were 218, and the math works out this way:
Clinton: (115 x 12) / 218 = 6.33
Sanders: (99 x 12) / 218 = 5.45
If “eligible attendees” means the number of people in viable groups at the end of the night, then there were 214, and the math works out this way:
Clinton: (115 x 12) / 214 = 6.45
Sanders: (99 x 12) / 214 = 5.55
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